Charlene Li just published a piece regarding a Forrester sizing report re U.S. online marketing forecast: $26 billion by 2010. She summarized her top 3 conclusions:
- This is not the return of “The Bubble”.
The growth is coming from marketers having to make tough decisions
about allocating scarce advertising dollars – in many cases, funding
online channels from traditional channels. Back in 1999/2000, spending
often came from exuberant spending, fueled by venture money.
- It’s more than just about search.
Search is great, it’s growing, but it’s not the whole story. In fact, I
anticipate that search will become much more integrated into
traditional brand advertising – witness what Google and Yahoo! are
doing in terms of tying CPM- and CPC-based products into the same ad ordering system.
- Marketers will shift channels away from traditional channels to fund online marketing. The
key is perceived effectiveness -- most marketers saw traditional
channels like TV and print becoming less effective over the next three
years.
The press release provides additional data points regarding the survey of 99 leading US marketers:
- Search engine marketing will grow by 33 percent in 2005 (to $5.7B), reaching $11.6 billion by 2010. Display advertising, which includes traditional banners and sponsorships, will grow at the average rate of 11 percent over the next five years to $8 billion by 2010.
- The only nondigital advertising channel to reach the same level of confidence as online channels with marketers is product placement -- only 8 percent of respondents believe that product placement will become less effective over the next three years.
- Marketers are quickly losing confidence in the effectiveness of traditional advertising channels and feel that online channels will become more effective over the next three years. Seventy-eight percent of survey respondents said they think search engine marketing will be more effective, compared with 53 percent of respondents who said TV advertising would become less effective.
- New advertising channels will draw interest and spending from marketers. Sixty-four percent of respondents are interested in advertising on blogs, 57 percent through RSS and 52 percent on mobile devices, including phones and PDAs.
It is interesting to correlate this information (search marketing growing and growing) to the fact that Second tier networks are failing (via John Battelle), which can only bode well for Yahoo and especially Google.
The second remark is related to the ever growing list of vertical search engines that were popping up all
over the place - many on seemingly large markets (jobs, travel, media, shopping,...),
but others focusing on creating value around a very focused vertical (e.g. Edcomp.com for free computer online training material, gambling.com for gambling sites, etc.). These companies are all hoping to develop usage and eyeballs on the basis of providing increased value/accuracy compared to "generic search". However monetization through advertising is not always clear or straightforward (e.g. AdSense on a job search result page provides ads with very limited relevance).
On horizontal search, only a couple of players are trying to penetrate the fortress held by the big 3 technology providers (Google, Yahoo, Microsoft). One of them is Snap.com (which was unveiled at the Web 2.0 Conference last October, and recently got into the News search fray). It is interesting for two reasons: 1) it allows advertisers to flexibly choose their payment model/strategy (CPM, CPC, CPA) and is totally transparent on statistics, referral information and how much it actually makes. In a world where click fraud might represent up to 20% of ad generated traffic, and advertisers are p...d off at Google for their lack of transparency - even filing suit against the company, that might be a strategy worth a shot at.
But first they have to raise more money, by convincing VCs of the reality of that potential.
As a final note, it is worth noting that over 50% marketers are interested in advertising on blogs, through RSS feeds and mobile phones/PDAs. We'll see in whose pocket that money ends up going.
Recent Comments